Day of the Dead (DotD) Card Game - Statistically probability, expense, and disclosure
@Al35ul CM I've been wondering about these issues this year. InnoGames made a step in the right direction by listing the RNG probabliities for not only what rewards you can get for any given "spin" for any given tombola action (or even the Traveling Fair games). That is a truly consumer-facing gesture.
However, what is still problematic for the DotD card game is there is no reporting of the correlation of the general probability of each tier, its rewards, and the nuggets (and incurring the cost thereof) involved. Naturally, it's simply statistical analysis to compute that info. Sadly, the "carrot on the stick" of an overpowered set like J.Cortina tends to blind the general user from the financial commitment of trying for that chest drop.
To clarify, I'm not implying any idea that the player "consumer" is obligated to spend a dime. However, the same can be said of a lever on a slot machine with a "$1,000,000 Jackpot" sign attached to the top of the machine. Without having a semblance of the financial baselines involved with DotD, the aura of the game is difficult to dissociate from
true gambling in the sense that not being even somewhat transparent with associating the odds with a
baseline necessity of nuggets required, on average, per the statistical math.
I'm not a statistician but you'd certainly have to have acumen with that discipline to even begin to map out the financial baselines I'm referring to in this post. Here's what I would like to see presented (but more accurately):
To get this item | Baseline probability; mean nuggets required per attempt | Total cost to address a reasonable chance to drop |
Tier III - Ron's shirt | 1 in 3 x3 (1/9) + 12% drop chance; 150 Nuggets (?) | $3USD* x 9 = $27USD |
Tier IV - Ron's pants | 1 in 3 X4 (1/12) + 14% drop chance; 400 Nuggets (?) | $8USD* X 12 = $96USD |
Tier V - J.Cortina chest | 1 in 3 x5 (1/15) + 5.9% drop chance (Death Chest) + 16.67% chance; 1000 Nuggets (???) | $20USD* x 15 = $300USD |
*Based on the $79.99USD purchase of 4000 nuggets
Again, this table is totally spitballing as I really don't know the math especially to include at Tier V that there are three components of probability versus the carrot on the stick that is the
J.Cortina or
G.Cortez chest.
I've have long surrendered to the idea that DotD closely following the opening of a new EN world is a major scheduled Q4 push for this game property. I'm not challenging that whatsoever. Instead I'm inquiring with the premise that InnoGames already demonstrated good faith with publishing drop probabilities.
So, again, having more transparency with the expenses would be more consumer-facing and steps away from an appearance of gambling. Yes, what I'm suggesting does fall under the due diligence of the consumer, yet the complex probability of dropping a "carrot" like J.Cortina and dangling a carrot like that in front of the consumer tends to eliminate due diligence.
I'm willing to wager that InnoGames stands to improve Q4 intake with The West with more DotD transparency.