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Product drop chance

DeletedUser

Guest
This topic was not considered a bug so its place must be here.
It is sad to notice that product drop system did not improve, it has got worse by now. It wasn't that good in 1.x, but 2.x is something. Normally a player would expect a drop for 38% in 100% / 38% = 2,63 and at most 2,63(1 + 38% * 62%) = 3,25 or 3-4 trials. Sadly it is not so, I keep getting the drop chance at continuous testing lower that it must be. Normally more than 30 trials are enough to approximate any distribution (binomial in this case) to normal distribution, but I got no raven feather in 40 trials (can't say what its drop chance was when the 2.x started).
In older versions (1.x) the drop was OK for high percentages and a bit bad for low percentages.
The question is will this get improved or am I miscalculating something? This is quite the problem considering how the craft is affected.
 

DeletedUser2890

Guest
Right now (since yesterday morning) im having "alot" more products than i normally get - but its on jobs with high droprate though.

Some jobs give 2 products (often) - even if the droprate is set to eg 90%

I havent tried with jobs with low droprate....

I havent reported it as a "bug" - cause its fine with me :D - and maybe im just lucky - but its strange that it occurs since yesterday morning...

I have just calculated the 62 times that i did "Tanning Deer skin" droprate 90%

sep 19 --> noon sep 21 --> 39 times - 31 leather droprate 80%
noon sep 21 --- till now --> 24 times - 36 leather droprate 150%
 
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DeletedUser

Guest
they must have changed something;
i have an adventurer so i have 110% drop chance on 15s jobs

i used to get 2 items once per day (gathering 10 items)

just now i got 2 items each time - well, every 3rd dropped 3 items.
 

DeletedUser3230

Guest
yes you are right - I get more today as well. Except for the quest items - they wont drop -
32 times collecting ammunition - and no strange lump.
20 times selling newspapers and 34 newspapers I got - but not the backpack I was looking for - and yes - I did have the list in my product slot.
 

DeletedUser

Guest
i'm doing tending pigs which has for adventurer drop rate of 66% for ham. well, after at least 50 jobs done, i received ham in every report, often even 2 hams.
 
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DeletedUser2890

Guest
After the last update i think there must be something wrong with the droprate again.

I have done "Trading with Indians" 20 times now (used 100 energy points) - and NO Cigars :mad:

The droprate are supposed to be 11% - and i have done it in a place with "Silver bonus" which provide another 7% droprate - Thats total 18% droprate for cigars.
It wil be IMPOSSIBLE to collect products for crafting anything, if its such low droprate.. I need 4 cigars for crafting "Gentlemans dinner" - and with 0 cigars then its impossible.
 

DeletedUser3110

Guest
The drop rates are nothing like the claimed percentage on virtually every job as far as ive found.

Picking tobacco states a 40% drop rate, from 25 works I have had 4, even with my bad maths I know that isnt close to 40%, so can anyone explain the way it works?

Is there a differential that I dont know about? does the drop rate drop the more you do?

Spending a whole day picking tobacco does not lead to a happy player, nor does spending all my energy to try and gain a basic commodity that is not dropping as it should.

Im not asking for rare items here, just any explanation as to how it works.
 

DeletedUser

Guest
Well, although I have the impression it's not always right, 25 times is not a reliable test. You need to do it at least 100 times, if not 1000 times.

The reason I'm doubting if the chances are right is my character on World 9 (Briscoe) on the Dutch server. I've done more than 280 times Pony Express and found only 6 post horns. A friend of mine also does this job (around 250 times now) and also has found 6 post horns. That means two people who have done around 250 hours (all together) of Pony Express have found 12 of those things, while you can calculate with simple maths that it should be around 500x0,05=25. That's half of what it should be.

Now, around 500 is not jet a reliable test for me, but I'm planning on testing this. If me and my friend both have reached around 500 times and still have far less post horns than we should have got, I will test it by doing the same on the Beta and a different language server, to make sure it's not our problem but that there's a bug in the system. Yes, that's a long term project, but well, the system is not that simple either. :)
 
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